Free PGA Bets Picks – Best 2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship Golf Bets
The Tom Kim train arrived at the station on Sunday, blitzing the field with a 61 on its final lap. We had the chance to bet on him when his putter fried the greens at Sedgefield, but golf is a strange sport and when things like that happen we appreciate them because we’ve been on the wrong end of that kind of performance several times before.
Tom Kim’s win is our fourth in 21 events, which puts us well ahead of schedule when it comes to breaking even all eight events in the absolute market. The last six weeks have been incredible, enjoying five of them and barely losing any money at the Scots. Over the season, we brought in 17.38% on our $100 every week, totaling $364.95 in profit, which is really exciting. I hope we can continue until the end of the year.
For those who read the article, Break $100 is a complete PGA betting guide on how to get every penny out of your $100. We’ll split $100 into a betting map comprised of hits, first-round leaders, standings, and a “farewell five,” all with the goal of turning a structured betting strategy into a profitable Sunday sweat. and entertaining. $100 divides or multiplies easily, so only bet the amounts you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of time @TheModelManiacif you have any questions, compliments or insults for me.
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Price Breakdown and Key Statistics
TPC Southwind, Par: 70, Distance: 7,243, Greens: Bermuda, Designer: Ron Prichard
The tour moves its lean field to Memphis where 125 golfers who made the playoffs will seek to climb the ranks Tom Kim-style. We remain on a Par 70 and Bermuda putting surface, which should help keep the handicapping process similar to last week with some key changes still in the works.
Southwind is a ball attacker’s paradise, with an approach game carrying one of the strongest correlations we’ve seen this year, especially in the 125-200 close ranges, where golfers will find themselves 65% of the time. To put that percentage into perspective, it’s a combined total of 11% more than the tour average, so the success of that lineup is paramount this week.
Accuracy off the tee as well as overall dominance with the driver will be crucial for putting approach shots in premium positions to attack the flags. With scores typically falling in the mid-teens, a birdie or better percentage will again be an important metric in the first week of the playoffs.
Here are the model parameters:
- We use two seasons of data for all metrics that do not have an L24 (last 24 rounds). “Szn Weight” is 72% stats from 2022 and 28% stats from 2021.
- Golfer Power Rankings are generated with Stats (75%), OWGR (10%) and Total L24 Strokes Gained (10%), Course History (5%).
Our betting strategy for outrights is rather conservative, requiring a winner once every eight events in order to break even. From a dollar perspective, we bet $13 of our $100 on net $110 or more. The outright map theme features two guys who both won the last tournament they played, and then two guys who have had several close calls recently and are still hitting the ball sensationally.
Cameron Smith ($6.65 @ +1800 on DraftKings)
The champion golfer of the year and our $100 cash cow make their millionth appearance on our card. Cameron Smith is officially the second golfer in the world and seems hungrier than ever to keep adding material to a trophy cabinet that is filling up faster than me at a Paula Dean buffet.
The model ranked him first in this area thanks to his best birdie percentage in the field, his world-class short game and an approach profile that has a baseline that could cause problems for the rest of the field. if his irons return to the top. form. Although relatively poor at the start, he now has a new driver in the bag which he has won in strokes in seven of his last eight laps.
If Smith can keep hitting that beautiful butter cut off the tee, the rest of his game is set to improve on his T5 finish he had here last year, with a fantastic opportunity to earn back-to-back starts, equal Scottie Scheffler with four wins on the season, and close the gap on the best player in the world.
Joohyung “Tom” Kim ($3.05 @ +4000 on DraftKings)
Joohyung “Tom” Kim finds himself on our card after closing the deal for us last week in epic fashion. He’s turned off the lights, but if he can keep playing good golf in his eighth straight start, he can rely on his hitting ball this week to get the job done again. He is extremely accurate off the tee and can really dial in his approach game, which is usually from the middle of the fairway.
In his limited starts this year, Tom has birdied a ton and should continue to do so this week. He seems to like putting Bermuda greens, earning a gargantuan +12.55 shots last week. This kind of performance will be hard to repeat, but he’s obviously playing with immense confidence at the moment and hopefully we can continue to enjoy that if he comes right back.
Russell Henley ($2.45 @ +5000 on Draftkings)
Russell Henley enters the week in scorching form with his irons on. In a star-studded field, over the last eight rounds, only Tom Hoge has won more shots on approach. In an event that has seen past winners do it without winning a putt, Henley is a prime candidate to hit the ball to victory. Henley putts better on the Bermuda greens compared to all surfaces, which could help him immensely when battling for a win.
Russell is also one of the best in the world at 125-200 and continues to display world-class accuracy off the tee, giving him all the weapons needed to be a threat in Memphis. Even with a putter that can get icy at times, Henley is still in the top 20 in birdie percentage. If Henley can conquer the ‘Sunday Scaries’, his game is poised to re-enter the winner’s circle.
Emiliano Grillo ($0.85 @ +15000 on DK)
Similar to Henley, Emilliano Grillo is one of the best ball strikers on the pitch and after a brief departure from ball-striking excellence earlier in the year, the ‘Grill-o’ caught fire and could cook through titanium steak when all burners are on. Off the tee, he remains one of the best in the world, ranking 18th on the circuit, using both accuracy and distance to frequent that ranking list with the likes of Viktor Hovland and Justin Thomas.
Grillo cooks best on Bermuda greens and is really solid from 0-15 feet, where the majority of birdie putts will come from this week. His last three starts have been T2, MC, T2, and he’s sort of 150-1 to win a golf tournament. If the short game can hold up this week, the rest of Grillo’s game peaks at a run that suits his skill profile, giving him a fantastic chance to win.
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First Round Leaders
From a dollar perspective, we bet a total of $12 on three guys to win $110 or more. Rory McIlroy makes the FRL card with a RIDICULOUS average of +6.08 strokes won in his last six rounds on Thursday.
Rory McIlroy ($5.25 @ +2600 on FanDuel)
Cameron Smith ($4.50 @ +3000 on DraftKings)
Russell Henley ($2.25 @ +6000 on Caesars)
We have six placement bets, with three top 20 and three top 40 bets. Looks like BetMGM has odds this week for T20 AND T40, which is AWESOME! When a book offers paid ties in full, we are willing to reduce the odds required to reach the betting threshold by 30 points, as avoiding the dead heat rules is worth paying that premium.
Sam Burns (T20: $11.7 @ +175 on FanDuel)
Collin Morikawa (T20: $11.66 @ +130 on BetMGM)
Joohyung Kim (T20: $11.66 @ +150 on BetMGM)
Emiliano Grillo (T40: $11.66 @ +125 on BetMGM)
Mark Hubbard (T40: $11.66 @ +150 on BetMGM)
Tom Hoge (T40: $11.66 @ +140 on BetMGM)
The Farewell Fiver
Keegan Bradley (T10: $5 @ +700 on BetMGM)
Keegan Bradley has been one of my favorite golfers to bet on because a ball striker like him who seems to have found a putter, offers a lot of advantage if both sides of his game can stop bickering. Nerves can get to him when he’s looking to win, so why not grab 7 to 1 odds for a top 10 if he’s playing the right way?
Wyndham Championship Recap:
- Total: $114.5
- FRL: -$12
- Investments: $51.65
- Farewell Fiver(s): -$5
- Total: $149.15
- Season Total: $364.95
Good luck this week and as always, may the odds always be in your favour!!!
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