PGA Betting, DFS Picks – Golf Betting Research (Cadance Bank Houston Open)

The purpose of this article is to help us get to grips with how we can expect the course to play out, what kind of skills matter most, and who the best players on the court are in those categories. Hopefully this piece will lead you straight to the lobster as you search through the golfer’s buffet to throw on your DFS plate. We’ve ranked the top 20 golfers for the majority of stats that should matter here this week.

I’ve spent many hours figuring out which KFT graduates will have the most success on the PGA Tour and even wrote the “Korn Ferry Fifty” which has a statistical profile of every KFT graduate. Many of those golfers will be on the course this week, with the majority of them unreliable having only played about eight rounds of PGA Tour golf. That being said, you can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of time @TheModelManiacif you have any questions, compliments or insults for me.

Featured promotion: Want a free RotoBaller Premium Pass? Check out these sports betting promotional offers from the best sports betting! All new registrants get a free bonus offer on their first deposit and a free year of RotoBaller’s Premium Pass for all sports ($450 value)!
Register now!

The kitchen (weather conditions)

We are in Texas, where the wind blows. There is a good chance that we will encounter wave advantages this week.

Memorial Park Golf Course: Par: 70, Distance: 7,412 Greens: Bermuda

Model parameters

Model rankings:

The usual (price history)

Course history:

Complementary courses: Silverado Resort & Spa (North), TPC Scottsdale, Bay Hill Club & Lodge

Some guys who have played pretty badly on similar courses over the last few years.

This week’s promotions (recent form)

A look at the top 20 in the four major stroke categories this season. If a player has no rounds but has stats, they earned those rounds in a non-PGA Tour event. I’ve also included the number of rounds played by each person to help you determine how important this stat is. Fewer turns = less meaningful.

Chiefs Recommendation: Approach

The top 20 players with the most total hits this season.

The top 20 players with the most tee shots this season.

The top 20 players who have won the most approach shots this season.

The top 20 players with the most shots around the green this season.

Top 20 players earning the most putts this season.

Let the Big Dog Eat (Driving Stats)

Any stat that does not have a pink title is a base stat and is weighted at 95% (2022) and 5% (2023) per season. KFT stats have been watered down by 15% to reflect the increased difficulty of the PGA Tour. We had Korn Ferry Tour graduates with much better stats than Scottie Scheffler, which doesn’t make sense, so I did my best to get them to think as accurately as possible.

The Driving Stats portion of the article includes shots won off the tee, distance, accuracy, and good shots won.

Chefs recommendation: % of good drives won (difficult course = fairways and greens)

Top 20 shots won off the tee (salaries seem to sync better with this column)

Top 20 Players Who Hit Bombs

Top 20 Most Accurate Drivers In The Field

Top 20 players get good records

Did you know that RotoBaller has a DFS PGA Premium Subscription?

Do you like what you read today? You can show your support for Byron using the discount code MANIACAL when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA Items, DFS Tools and Lineup Optimizer! You also have access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the best betting minds in the industry. Spencer is absolutely crushing the door in 2022!

Meat and potatoes (approach statistics)

Approach. East. King! Approach shots won is the stat that has the strongest correlation to total shots won and a good approach player provides consistent performance, usually with a relatively high floor. It is indeed the meat and potatoes of all stats.

Chiefs recommendation: APPROACH (general)

Approach to the top 20 base hits won

Top 20 greens in regulation from the fairway

Top 20 near the fairway

Top 20 Greens in Regulation from gross.

Top 20 near the rough

Scrambled eggs (around the green)

Who likes to scramble their eggs? Who digests their fried eggs the best? Let’s find out.

*For those of you who noticed that Collin Morikawa has negative ARG ratings but positive metrics for all three phases around the green game, I have a working theory as to why this is so. For one of the best iron players in the world, Collin probably gets a lot closer to the hole, when he’s around the green, which makes his closeness numbers super impressive, but from those distances he’s still below average compared to the rest of the field. Again, statistics have flaws and should not be treated as gospel or in a vacuum, but they do help us understand where certain golfers struggle or succeed when additional context is added.

Chefs recommendation: FRANGE

Top 20 around the green

The 20 best of the fringe

The 20 Best of Sand

Top 20 Crude

Eat your greens (putting)

Every week we visit a green area that has a specific grass. Taylor Montgomery is by far the best putter in this area right now, but we can expect his numbers to go down a bit as he had an outlier putting performance at Fortinet, earning over 10 shots on the green, a feat that only three other golfers achieved all of last season.

Also, not enough rounds have been played on the Paspalum greens, so I won’t include them this week.

Chefs recommendation: put 5 to 15 feet

The 20 best putters in the field.

Top 20 in putt avoidance 3

Bermuda’s 20 fucking last 50 laps

Sprinkles and syrup (rating stats)

Whatever you like on your ice cream or cheesecake, add a little more to it with some score stats.

Chiefs recommendation: par 5 score (3 par 5 and 4 par 4 over 290 meters)

Top 20 scorers on tough courses (where the par for the top 5 was -10 or worse). They are just veteran PGA Tour players who have played multi-pole rounds on tough courses. KFT lacks such places.

Top 20 scorers on medium courses (where par for top 5 was -10 or better). It is mainly here because there was only one difficult course on the KFT.

Top 20 birdie makers.

Best for playing boring golf, avoiding bogeys.

Who goes the fastest in the hole in par 5?

The Fortune Cookie filter (above average in six key stats)

Fortune smiles on the brave, and these guys seem to be above average in all six key categories recommended by the chef.

  • Good readers won
  • Recent approach / Reference approach
  • Marginal proximity
  • Difficult scoring conditions
  • Put Bermuda Greens
  • Rating by 5

I hope this has helped you reduce your players with ease and success.

Good luck this week and as always, may the odds always be in your favour!!!

Win big with RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it’s time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium package includes several expert analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently won a major DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as a reminder, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100,000 on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

Between all the amazing Premium PGA DFS content and tools we post weekly, and our Premium Slack community where we chat with our subscribers before the queues lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis and advice to win big.

DFS Golf News and Player Insights

More PGA analysis and DFS range choices

Michael C. Ford